We measure the jobs market in many ways, but the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS report seems to be of particular interest to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The JOLTS report tells the Fed how many job openings there are each month. It also shows how many people were hired, quit, or were laid off.
Given the above, there's no doubt the Fed welcomed the news illustrated in the chart below.
The Fed is looking for three key things in its fight to stabilize the economy. A slowed Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index to fall, and the labor market to soften. Now, GDP has already slowed, but as we all know, inflation has yet to be tamed, and the labor market is mixed at best.
This means the financial markets are in a “bad news is good news” phase. Put another way, the bad news of fewer job openings is good news to Fed officials. We understand this “bad is good” phase can be confusing, to say the least, so please reach out if you have any questions.
JOLTS of Optimism for the Markets?
October 17, 2022